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May Weather Summary For Crops | $CORN $SOYB $WEAT

June 11, 2019
May Weather Summary

Merciless rains pounded the Plains and Midwest, triggering new rounds of 
flooding and leading to a record-slow planting pace for the Nation's corn and 
soybeans. By June 2, only 67 percent of the corn and 39 percent of the 
soybeans had been planted, breaking the 1995 records of 77 and 40 percent, 
respectively. Late in the month, record flooding developed in the 
Arkansas River Basin, while rivers in parts of the middle Mississippi Valley 
surged to their second-highest levels on record, behind 1993.

The incessantly wet conditions across the Plains and the Midwest were 
accompanied by below-normal temperatures, leading to developmental delays and 
quality concerns with respect to winter wheat. Furthermore, late-planted 
summer crops were slow to emerge and become established amid the cool, rainy 
conditions.

Unseasonably wet weather extended into parts of the West, including 
California and the Great Basin. From California into the Four Corners States, 
cooler-than-normal conditions accompanied the frequent showers, slowing 
fieldwork and crop development. In contrast, warmer- and drier-than-normal 
weather stretched from the Pacific Northwest to the northernmost Rockies, 
resulting in some drought expansion.

Meanwhile, hot, dry weather developed in the Southeast, particularly in the 
southern Atlantic States, leading to significant reductions in soil moisture 
and increasing stress on summer crops, such as corn. A late-month 
Southeastern hot spell boosted temperatures to 100°F or higher in many 
locations, contributing to further drought intensification.

Elsewhere, showers that fell in the Nation's mid-section often swept into the 
Northeast, maintaining soggy conditions in the latter region. However, 
precipitation mostly bypassed some areas along the Canadian border, 
stretching as far east as northern Minnesota, leaving a sharp gradient 
between that area and saturated sections of the Plains and Midwest just to 
the south.

May Agricultural Summary
 
May was cooler than average for parts of California, the Corn Belt, 
Great Plains, New England, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest with temperatures 
averaging 4°F or more below normal. However, temperatures were warmer in the 
mid-Atlantic, Florida, southern Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley, and 
Pacific Northwest averaging 2°F or more above normal in some areas. The 
United States was wetter than normal for the month of May. Parts of the 
Corn Belt, Delta, and the Great Plains received more than 10 inches of rain 
during the month. However, the northern part of States along the Canadian 
border, as well as parts of the Pacific Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and 
Southeast remained dry.

By May 5, producers had planted 23 percent of the Nation's corn acreage, 
13 percentage points behind the previous year and 23 percentage points behind 
the 5-year average. Six percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by 
May 5, one percentage point behind the previous year and 7 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average. Producers had planted 49 percent of the Nation's 
corn acreage by May 19, twenty-nine percentage points behind the previous 
year and 31 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Nineteen percent of 
the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by May 19, twenty-eight percentage 
points behind the previous year and 30 percentage points behind the 5-year 
average. By June 2, producers had planted 67 percent of the Nation's corn 
acreage, 29 percentage points behind both the previous year and the 5-year 
average. Forty-six percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by 
June 2, thirty-eight percentage points behind both the previous year and the 
5-year average.

Producers had planted 6 percent of the Nation's soybean acreage by May 5, 
eight percentage points behind both the previous year and the 5-year average. 
Nineteen percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was planted by May 19, 
thirty-four percentage points behind the previous year and 28 percentage 
points behind the 5-year average. Five percent of the Nation's soybean 
acreage had emerged by May 19, nineteen percentage points behind the previous 
year and 12 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By June 2, 
thirty-nine percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was planted, 
47 percentage points behind the previous year and 40 percentage points behind 
the 5-year average. 

By May 5, twenty-nine percent of the Nation's 2019 winter wheat acreage had 
reached the headed stage, 2 percentage points behind the previous year and 
12 percentage points behind the 5-year average. As of May 5, 
sixty-four percent of this year's winter wheat acreage was reported in good 
to excellent condition, 30 percentage points above the same time last year. 
Fifty-four percent of the winter wheat acreage had reached the headed stage 
by May 19, five percentage points behind the previous year and 12 percentage 
points behind the 5-year average. By June 2, seventy-six percent of the 
Nation's winter wheat acreage had reached the headed stage, 6 percentage 
points behind the previous year and 8 percentage points behind the 5-year 
average. As of June 2, sixty-four percent of this year's winter wheat acreage 
was reported in good to excellent condition, 27 percentage points above the 
same time last year.

Nationwide, 18 percent of the 2019 cotton acreage had been planted by May 5, 
one percentage point behind both the previous year and the 5-year average. 
Forty-four percent of the cotton acreage had been planted by May 19, 
six percentage points behind the previous year and 1 percentage point behind 
the 5-year average. By June 2, seventy-one percent of the cotton acreage had 
been planted, 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 1 percentage 
point behind the 5-year average. Eight percent of the Nation's cotton acreage 
had reached the squaring stage by June 2, one percentage point behind the 
previous year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. As of 
June 2, forty-six percent of this year's cotton acreage was rated in good to 
excellent condition, 4 percentage points above the same time last year.

Twenty-two percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by May 5, 
seven percentage points behind both the previous year and the 5-year average. 
Twenty-six percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by May 19, 
twelve percentage points behind both the previous year and the 5-year 
average. By June 2, thirty-five percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was 
planted, 24 percentage points behind the previous year and 18 percentage 
points behind the 5-year average. Producers in Texas had planted 85 percent 
of the State's intended sorghum acreage by June 2, ten percentage points 
behind the previous year but identical to the 5-year average.

Producers had seeded 48 percent of the 2019 rice acreage by May 5, 
eighteen percentage points behind the previous year and 21 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average. By May 5, thirty-five percent of the Nation's 
acreage had emerged, 7 percentage points behind the previous year and 
15 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Seventy-three percent of this 
year's rice acreage had been seeded by May 19, nineteen percentage points 
behind the previous year and 17 percentage points behind the 5-year average. 
By May 19, fifty-two percent of this year's rice acreage had emerged, 
20 percentage points behind the previous year and 23 percentage points behind 
the 5-year average. By June 2, producers had seeded 91 percent of this year's 
rice acreage, 8 percentage points behind the previous year and 7 percentage 
points behind the 5-year average. By June 2, seventy-six percent of the rice 
acreage had emerged, 18 percentage points behind the previous year and 
15 percentage points behind the 5-year average. As of June 2, 
sixty-one percent of the Nation's rice acreage was rated in good to excellent 
condition, 13 percentage points below the same time last year.

Nationally, oat producers had seeded 50 percent of the 2019 acreage by May 5, 
four percentage points behind the previous year and 22 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average. Thirty-six percent of the Nation's oat acreage had 
emerged by May 5, three percentage points ahead of the previous year but 
15 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Oat producers had seeded 
77 percent of this year's acreage by May 19, seven percentage points behind 
the previous year and 13 percentage points behind the 5-year average. 
Fifty-three percent of the oat acreage had emerged by May 19, 
eleven percentage points behind the previous year and 23 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average. By June 2, oat producers had seeded 91 percent of 
this year's acreage, 6 percentage points behind the previous year and 
7 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Seventy-seven percent of the 
oat acreage had emerged by June 2, twelve percentage points behind the 
previous year and 16 percentage points behind the 5-year average. 
Twenty-three percent of this year's oat acreage had headed by June 2, 
seven percentage points behind the previous year and 10 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average. As of June 2, sixty-two percent of the Nation's 
oat acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, 3 percentage points 
below the same time last year.

Thirty-seven percent of the Nation's barley was planted by May 5, 
three percentage points behind the previous year and 19 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average. By May 5, twelve percent of the barley acreage had 
emerged, equal to the previous year but 15 percentage points behind the 
5-year average. Seventy-six percent of this year's barley was planted by 
May 19, two percentage points behind the previous year and 8 percentage 
points behind the 5-year average. By May 19, thirty-nine percent of the 
barley acreage had emerged, 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 
18 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Ninety-four percent of this 
year's barley was planted by June 2, two percentage points behind the 
previous year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By June 2, 
seventy-three percent of the barley acreage had emerged, 7 percentage points 
behind the previous year and 12 percentage points behind the 5-year average. 
As of June 2, eighty-eight percent of the this year's barley acreage was 
rated in good to excellent condition, 9 percentage points above the same time 
last year. 

By May 5, twenty-two percent of the Nation's spring wheat acreage was seeded, 
5 percentage points behind the previous year and 27 percentage points behind 
the 5-year average. Four percent of the spring wheat acreage had emerged by 
May 5, equal to the previous year but 15 percentage points behind the 5-year 
average. Seventy percent of this year's spring wheat acreage was seeded by 
May 19, six percentage points behind the previous year and 10 percentage 
points behind the 5-year average. Twenty-six percent of the spring wheat 
acreage had emerged at that time, 8 percentage points behind the previous 
year and 25 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By June 2, 
ninety-three percent of the spring wheat acreage was seeded, 3 percentage 
points behind both the previous year and the 5-year average. 
Sixty-nine percent of the spring wheat acreage had emerged at that time, 
9 percentage points behind the previous year and 15 percentage points behind 
the 5-year average. As of June 2, eighty-three percent of this year's spring 
wheat acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, 13 percentage points 
above the same time last year. 

Nationally, peanut producers had planted 22 percent of the 2019 peanut 
acreage by May 5, one percentage point ahead of the previous year and 
3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By May 19, peanut producers 
had planted 63 percent of this year's peanut acreage, 3 percentage points 
ahead of the previous year and 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year 
average. Peanut producers had planted 86 percent of this year's peanut 
acreage by June 2, four percentage points ahead of the previous year and 
1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. As of June 2, 
sixty-one percent of the Nation's peanut acreage was rated in good to 
excellent condition, 2 percentage points above the same time last year.

By May 5, thirty-one percent of the sugarbeet acreage was planted, 
29 percentage points behind the previous year and 36 percentage points behind 
the 5-year average. By June 2, ninety-seven percent of the sugarbeet acreage 
was planted, 3 percentage points behind both the previous year and the 5-year 
average.

Three percent of the Nation's intended 2019 sunflower acreage was planted by 
May 19, seven percentage points behind the previous year and 9 percentage 
points behind the 5-year average. By June 2, nineteen percent of this year's 
sunflower acreage was planted, 27 percentage points behind the previous year 
and 25 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Planting progress was 
behind the 5-year average pace in all estimating States at that time and had 
not yet begun in South Dakota.

Crop Comments

Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.27 billion bushels, up less than 
1 percent from the May 1 forecast and up 8 percent from 2018. As of June 1, 
the United States yield is forecast at 50.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushel 
from last month and up 2.6 bushels from last year's average yield of 
47.9 bushels per acre. As of June 2, sixty-four percent of the winter wheat 
acreage in the 18 major producing States was rated in good to excellent 
condition, 27 percentage points higher than at the same time last year. 
Nationally, 76 percent of the winter wheat crop was headed by June 2, 
eight percentage points lower than the 5-year average pace. If realized, the 
2019 United States winter wheat yield will be the second highest on record. 

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red 
Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are 
above last year's level in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas 
but below in Montana. As of June 2, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas winter wheat 
was rated 57 percent, 64 percent, and 64 percent, in good to excellent 
condition, respectively. In the Low Plains of Texas, harvest was underway. 
Conditions were favorable in the Blacklands, South Central Texas, and the 
Edwards Plateau for harvest. 

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red 
Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are below last year's levels in 
Illinois and Ohio but above last year's levels in Missouri. As of June 2, 
Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio winter wheat was rated 75 percent, 84 percent, 
and 62 percent, in fair to good condition, respectively. 

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are 
below last year. As of June 2, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington winter wheat was 
rated 71 percent, 63 percent, and 73 percent, in good to excellent condition, 
respectively. Warmer conditions in some Washington counties, advanced the 
crop but put heat stress on wheat acreage. 

Durum wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast 
at a collective 7.97 million bushels, down 2 percent from last month and down 
25 percent from 2018. In Arizona, 33 percent of the acreage was harvested by 
June 2, five percentage points ahead of last year and 12 percentage points 
ahead of the 5-year average. Ninety-four percent of the Arizona acreage was 
in good to excellent condition on June 2, fifteen percentage points above the 
same time last year. 

Grapefruit: The United States 2018-2019 grapefruit crop is forecast at 
604,000 tons, down slightly from last month but up 17 percent from last 
season's final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 
4.51 million boxes (192,000 tons), is down 2 percent from last month but 
up 16 percent from last year. California and Texas grapefruit production 
forecasts were carried forward from the previous month.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is 
forecast at 927,000 tons, down slightly from last month but up 15 percent 
from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 990,000 boxes 
(47,000 tons), is down 1 percent from last month but up 32 percent from the 
previous year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried 
forward from the previous month.

Prunes (dried plums): California's 2019 prune production is forecast at 
110,000 dried tons, up 38 percent from last year. Good growing conditions 
were reported, resulting in a successful bloom and a good fruit set.

Cherries, Tart: United States tart cherry production is forecast at 
290 million pounds, down 18 percent from the 2018 production.

In Michigan, the largest tart cherry producing State, growers reported an 
average crop. Cooler than normal spring weather conditions led to a delay in 
the crop. Utah growers reported an above average crop similar to the previous 
year. In New York, growers reported an average crop and bloom. In Washington, 
growers reported warm spring weather conditions and expect harvest to begin 
later than normal. In Wisconsin, cool and wet conditions led to a delay in 
the crop this year. 

Cherries, Sweet: United States sweet cherry production is forecast at 362,000 
tons, up 13 percent from 2018.

In Washington and Oregon, warm spring conditions have been optimal for the 
crop. In California, growers reported sufficient chill and precipitation 
leading to a good crop this season. 

Sweet cherry estimates were discontinued in Michigan. 

Maple syrup: The 2019 United States maple syrup production totaled 
4.24 million gallons, up 1 percent from the revised previous year. The number 
of taps totaled 13.3 million, down 4 percent from the 2018 total. Yield per 
tap was 0.318 gallon, up 0.015 gallon from the previous season. 

The earliest sap flow reported was January 5 in New York. The latest sap flow 
reported to open the season was March 1 in Wisconsin. On average, the season 
lasted 30 days, compared with 42 days in 2018. The 2018 United States average 
price per gallon was $33.80, up $0.70 from 2017. Value of production, at 
$142 million for 2018, was down 2 percent from the previous season.

Beginning in 2019, maple syrup estimates were discontinued for Connecticut, 
Indiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, and West Virginia.

Statistical Methodology

Wheat survey procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were 
conducted between May 25 and June 6 to gather information on expected yield 
as of June 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 States that 
accounted for 70 percent of the 2018 winter wheat production. Farm operators 
were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek 
permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat 
fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's 
maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of 
emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that will be 
harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to 
develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is 
subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until 
crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. After the 
farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to 
obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use 
of mail, internet, and personal interview. Approximately 3,400 producers were 
interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about the probable 
yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed 
throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields.

Orange survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the June 1 
forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the 
number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In 
August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage 
surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used 
to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct 
grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. 
California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel 
oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Wheat estimating procedures: National and State level objective yield and 
grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with 
historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather 
patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. 
Each Regional Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to 
the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the 
State analyses to prepare the published June 1 forecasts.

Orange estimating procedures: State level objective yield indications for 
Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency 
with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of 
the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB 
uses the Florida survey data and their analysis to prepare the published 
June 1 forecast. The June 1 orange production forecasts for California and 
Texas are carried forward from April.

Revision policy: The June 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, 
a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-
season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the wheat 
marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, 
production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then 
made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant 
changes. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in the Citrus 
Fruits Summary released in August. The orange production estimates are based 
on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including 
information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 
Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1 
production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure 
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the June 1 
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of 
the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the 
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes 
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be 
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's 
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 winter wheat production forecast 
is 4.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current 
winter wheat production will not be above or below the final estimate by more 
than 4.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that 
the difference will not exceed 8.3 percent. Differences between the June 1 
winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 
20 years have averaged 59 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 
166 million bushels. The June 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 
10 times and above 10 times. This does not imply that the June 1 winter wheat 
forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 orange production forecast is 
1.7 percent. However, if you exclude the four abnormal production seasons 
(one freeze season and three hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" 
is 1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current 
orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by 
more than 1.7 percent, or 1.9 percent when excluding abnormal seasons. 
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference 
will not exceed 2.9 percent, or 3.2 percent when excluding abnormal seasons. 

Changes between the June 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the 
past 20 years have averaged 104,000 tons (120,000 tons, excluding abnormal 
seasons), ranging from 5,000 tons to 272,000 tons (23,000 tons to 272,000 
tons excluding abnormal seasons). The June 1 forecast for oranges has been 
below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times (below 6 times and above 
10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the 
June 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final 
production.

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