Predictive Markets Point To Harris Being Nominee
By: J.L | June 29, 2019
According to the prediction markets, Sen. Kamala Harris looks to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee. Most would say that the official polls do not point to that conclusion, however, markets are usually never wrong. Do you remember what happened back in November 2016? Yeah, they blew that one pretty bad.
In his 2004 book “The Wisdom Of Crowds” James Surowiecki tries to prove “that many are smarter than the few.” he goes on to explain in the book “the aggregation of information in groups results in decisions that, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group.”
It’s worth pointing out that she did not start at the top. If we look back only 2 months ago, she was still sitting with about an 11% probability of winning the nomination. After the debates, the money flowed in, and she rose 3% above Joe Biden who now sits at a 21% chance of winning the nomination with Kamala Harris at 24%.
The prediction markets correctly predicted the election of Barack Obama in 2008. The wisdom of the crowds is usually correct, however, things always work until they don’t. As for now, the money is pointing to Senator Harris.
The prediction markets are now pointing to Sen. Elizabeth Warren with a high probability of winning the 2020 Iowa Caucus. Joe Biden only 7 days ago had a 27% chance of winning and dropped to 20% in only a week! So anything can happen, and as in the regular markets, things changes and opinions change even faster.
However, before you start to think she is about to be the president of the United States. If you are leaning on the same prediction markets to predict Sen. Harris as the winner, those same markets show President Donald Trump winning re-election against Sen. Harris in a general election match up.